This is a quarterly snapshot of what we’re seeing in the South East Queensland commercial energy market, current as of May 2026. We update this piece every quarter because the market moves and the published “default” rates lag where the panel is actually quoting.
What you’ll get out of reading this:
- Where SEQ wholesale electricity + gas prices are sitting right now
- Which retailers are quoting sharpest by site profile
- Three policy/regulatory developments shaping commercial pricing through 2026
- The forward outlook for the next 12 months
- What to do if your contract is up for renewal in the next 6 months
If you’d rather skip the reading: send us your last bill and contract end date, we’ll model your specific situation against the current market and tell you what a re-quote would land at. No obligation.
The 30-second version
As of May 2026:
- SEQ wholesale electricity has settled into a relatively stable band after the 2023-2024 volatility. Forward prices for the next 12 months trending modestly lower.
- Commercial gas remains structurally tighter than electricity, Australia’s LNG export commitments continue to pull domestic supply.
- The sharpest SME panel right now: Origin Business + Powershop on small hospitality; Momentum and Alinta competitive on manufacturing/trades.
- The sharpest C&I tender retailers: SmartestEnergy and Shell C&I are consistently sharp on demand-billed sites above 100 MWh/year.
- Renewals from out-of-term sites continue to deliver the biggest single savings, 15-40% drops are common when bringing 2-3 year-old contracts back to current market.
Wholesale electricity, where are we right now
SEQ commercial electricity is largely set by Queensland zone wholesale prices at the AEMO spot market level, plus retailer hedging strategy and customer-specific load shape.
What’s moving wholesale right now
Three factors shaping commercial pricing in 2026:
1. Coal generation phase-down. Queensland’s older coal generators (Callide, Stanwell) continue scheduled phase-out. Each closure tightens supply in the short term but is being offset by new renewable + storage + gas-peaker capacity.
2. Battery storage scale-up. Multiple grid-scale battery projects in SEQ have come online over the last 18 months. These are reducing wholesale peak prices (the 4pm-8pm window) more meaningfully than expected. Time-of-use commercial contracts with sharp off-peak rates benefit.
3. Solar saturation midday. Combined commercial + residential rooftop solar is so widespread in SEQ that wholesale prices regularly hit zero or negative during sunny midday hours. Retailers price this in for sites with time-of-use tariffs, daytime-heavy businesses (cafes, retail) benefit from cheap shoulder rates.
What this means for your renewal
If your contract ends in the next 6 months, the forward market for new contracts starting Q3 2026 is currently 3-7% below where it sat in 2024-2025. That’s not a huge drop, but it’s real money on a $50,000/year bill ($1,500-$3,500/year).
If your contract was signed during the 2022-2023 wholesale spike, your current rates are likely 15-25% above market. Rebidding now captures the full correction.
Commercial gas, structurally tighter
Where SEQ electricity has stabilised, commercial gas remains a different story.
What’s pressuring gas prices
- Australia’s LNG export contracts continue to absorb a large share of east-coast gas production
- New domestic gas exploration in SEQ has been slow to come online
- Some retail-specialist gas retailers have exited the SME segment, reducing competition
- Increased coal-to-gas peaker generation for electricity adds demand pressure
What this means for commercial gas customers
The window of “cheap gas” some businesses enjoyed in the 2010s is closed. Current commercial gas pricing in SEQ:
- SME hospitality (50-500 GJ/year): $18-26/GJ all-in
- Medium commercial (500-5,000 GJ/year): $14-21/GJ
- Industrial (above 5 TJ/year): $11-17/GJ with negotiated terms
If you’re on a gas contract signed in 2020-2022 expecting it to renew at the same rates: it won’t. Most renewals are landing 25-50% above where the prior contract was set. The good news: the wholesale market is now relatively stable, so 24-month locks at current rates are sensible.
See our commercial gas guide for the full breakdown.
Retailer-by-retailer competitive position, May 2026
Based on the tenders + panel quotes we’ve run in the past 90 days:
SME panel (sites under ~100 MWh/year)
Origin Business
- Currently sharp on: small hospitality (cafes, salons), retail under 50 MWh
- Less sharp on: medium SME (50-100 MWh), manufacturing
- Notable: bundled gas + electricity offers have improved meaningfully this quarter
AGL Business
- Currently sharp on: medium SME (50-100 MWh), retail chains
- Less sharp on: small hospitality (Origin and Momentum usually win)
- Notable: renewable + GreenPower options at competitive pricing for ESG-conscious SMEs
Powershop
- Currently sharp on: very small commercial (under 30 MWh), home-business-style operators
- Less sharp on: anything above 50 MWh
- Notable: monthly pricing transparency is the best in the SME panel
Momentum Energy
- Currently sharp on: small hospitality + retail with predictable load shape
- Less sharp on: irregular or seasonal businesses
- Notable: customer service consistently rated above panel average
EnergyAustralia
- Currently sharp on: situational, only when they want a specific account
- Less sharp on: most SME quotes by default, needs aggressive pushback
- Notable: strong on bundled gas + electricity for larger SME
Alinta Business
- Currently sharp on: manufacturing + trades, mid-size SME
- Less sharp on: very small commercial
- Notable: willing to negotiate demand rates aggressively
Shell Energy SME
- Currently sharp on: predictable load shapes, single-site businesses
- Less sharp on: irregular hours, short-term contracts
- Notable: cleanest contracts in the SME panel, fewest hidden clauses
C&I tender (sites above ~100 MWh/year)
SmartestEnergy Australia
- Currently sharp on: portfolio tenders, demand-billed C&I sites, multi-site hospitality
- Less sharp on: very large single-site industrial (Shell typically wins there)
- Notable: usually the sharpest demand pricing in the market right now
Shell Energy C&I
- Currently sharp on: large industrial, bundled gas + electricity portfolios
- Less sharp on: small C&I (100-200 MWh)
- Notable: best in market for hospitality groups with mixed gas + electric kitchens
AGL C&I
- Currently sharp on: long-term contracts (36 months) for stable load profiles
- Less sharp on: shorter terms, demand-aggressive sites
- Notable: market share gives them volume confidence; will often match competing offers
Origin Enterprise
- Currently sharp on: growth-stage operators wanting flexibility
- Less sharp on: stable established portfolios
- Notable: willing to structure unusual contract terms
Three policy/regulatory developments to watch
These shape commercial pricing through 2026-2027:
1. Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) auctions
The federal Capacity Investment Scheme is auctioning underwriting for renewable + storage capacity. Successful auctions in 2025-2026 are bringing forward 2027-2028 supply additions that will further stabilise commercial wholesale prices.
Implication: commercial energy contracts signed in 2026 face less wholesale risk than those signed in 2022-2023. Locking 24-36 month terms now is lower-risk than it was 2 years ago.
2. AEMC default offer changes
AEMC’s review of default offers continues. Commercial default (“out-of-term”) rates remain meaningfully above competitive panel rates. There’s no regulatory cap on commercial defaults the way there is for residential.
Implication: if your contract has rolled to default, you’re paying significantly more than you should be. The fix is rebidding, there’s no policy lever coming to help.
3. National Customer Code for Energy Brokers
Voluntary code of conduct for energy brokers is gaining adoption. Brokers signed up commit to commission disclosure, fair-dealing standards, and complaint handling pathways.
Implication: when picking a broker, ask if they’re signed up to the code. Honest brokers welcome the question; sketchy ones dodge it. Smarta is committed to the code’s transparency standards regardless of formal sign-up status.
Forward outlook, next 12 months
What we’re modelling for new commercial contracts starting between Q3 2026 and Q3 2027:
- Electricity: modest downward trend on flat-rate contracts (~3-5% lower than equivalent contracts signed 12 months ago). Time-of-use contracts with sharp off-peak benefit more (~5-10% lower effective rates for daytime-heavy SMEs).
- Gas: structurally tight but stable. Don’t expect drops; do expect 24-month locks at current rates to look smart in retrospect.
- Demand pricing: more competition from C&I retailers in the demand line. Sites previously paying $14-16/kVA on demand mark-up can often negotiate to $9-11.
- Bundled deals: bundled gas + electricity discounts are real this quarter, typical 4-8% saving vs unbundled equivalent.
What to do if your contract ends in the next 6 months
- Find your contract end date. Usually on the front page of your bill.
- Set a 90-day pre-expiry trigger. See our renewal checklist guide.
- Pull together a usage summary: NMI, annual kWh, peak kVA reading, current retailer.
- Run a quick panel quote at 75-90 days out. Comparison sheet within 24 hours of bill upload.
- Negotiate the top 2 retailers. Sharpening of 2-8% is typical in the negotiation step.
If you’ve already rolled out-of-term and you’re 12+ months past expiry: rebid this week. The longer you wait, the more you pay.
What to do if your contract is mid-term
Two scenarios:
Mid-term but recently signed (under 6 months ago): do nothing. The exit fees + administrative effort outweigh any market savings on a recent contract.
Mid-term and signed 18+ months ago: worth a contract review. Some retailers will sharpen mid-contract if a credible competing offer exists; we’ve kept clients with their existing retailer many times by triggering this conversation. Free review, no commitment.
Multi-site portfolio holders
If you run multiple sites with mixed contract end dates:
- Map every site’s end date in one spreadsheet
- Identify the “earliest expiry”, that’s your tender trigger date (90 days before)
- Decide whether to align all sites onto a synchronised future end date by signing different term lengths now (e.g. 12-month on a site expiring in 6 months + 24-month on a site expiring in 18 months → both expire together)
- This makes future tendering much cleaner
See our multi-site guide for the full process.
Common questions
Are renewable contracts more expensive in 2026?
For SME: marginally (1-3% premium for 100% renewable). For C&I: often within parity now, sometimes cheaper because some C&I retailers have surplus renewable capacity to allocate.
Should I lock in 36 months given prices are stable?
Usually no, 24 months is sweet-spot for most SMEs. Lock 36 only if (a) you have very predictable usage AND (b) the 36-month rate is meaningfully cheaper (>5%) than the 24-month rate.
Is solar still worth installing for commercial?
Yes for sites with daytime peak usage (offices, retail, manufacturing day shift). Less compelling for hospitality (evening peak) or 24/7 operations. ROI is typically 4-7 years for SEQ commercial.
What’s a typical broker commission in 2026?
For SME contracts: $0.50-$1.50 per MWh contracted (retailer pays the broker). For C&I: $0.30-$1.00 per MWh. On a 100 MWh/year SME contract: $50-$150/year retainer commission. On a 1 GWh/year C&I contract: $300-$1,000/year. We disclose the exact dollar amount on request for any contract we recommend.
Is now a good time to switch?
For out-of-term sites: always. For contracts ending in <12 months: start the 90-day pre-expiry rebid now. For contracts mid-term: only if the saving exceeds the exit fee.
When this guide refreshes
We update this piece every quarter. Next refresh: August 2026 (Q3 update).
The retailer competitive positions move quarter by quarter, what’s sharp in May might be middle-of-pack in August. The market commentary and outlook get re-evaluated against actual wholesale movements.
If you want a real-time read on where your specific situation sits in the current market, the fastest path is sending us your bill: hello@smartaswitch.com.au or upload via this page.
Joe Lawrence, Co-founder, Smarta Switch Australia
0435 642 592 · joe@smartaswitch.com.au